Sunday, February 20, 2011

Trillion $$ Rounding Errors by GWBush (Zero Hedge)

And now for some facts: On February 28, 2001 George Bush said this about his 2002 Budget: “It will retire nearly $1 trillion in debt over the next four years.” Instead, US debt, which at that point was $5.7 trillion, rose to $7.7 trillion. $3 trillion rounding error? Also in the same budget, Bush predicted a $5.6 trillion surplus over the next ten years, which would wipe out all of America's debt by 2011. The latest debt figure was $14.1 trillion. A $14.1 trillion rounding error, or a nearly five fold increase in "rounding errors" in a decade. At this point, the 2021 total debt (including insolvent Social Security) is expected to be $24 trillion. Applying the same rounding error variance to government "projections" means... $113 trillion in debt?
Most jarring, total US Debt to GDP will be over 100% in under 6 months. Paging Reinhart and Rogoff...
A little more on future rounding errors as per Bill Buckler's latest Privateer:
As did Mr Bush’s fiscal 2002 budget, Mr Obama’s fiscal 2012 budget delivered on February 14 includes projections ten years into the future. Unlike Mr Bush’s projections, Mr Obama’s projections for the period between now and 2021 do not contain a single budget surplus. Instead they add up to a cumulative deficit over the next ten years of $US 7.2 TRILLION. The biggest projected annual deficit - $US 1.65 TRILLION - is for the fiscal year ending on September 30, 2011. The smallest - $US 619 Billion - is for fiscal 2018. By 2021, the total annual outlay of the US government is predicted to be $US 5.697 TRILLION. That is an increase of 49 percent over the projected outlay for the current (2011) fiscal year. By 2021, the total annual revenue of the US government is predicted to be $US 4.923 TRILLION. That is an increase of 126.5 percent over the projected revenue for the current (2011) fiscal year. By 2021, government revenues are predicted to have risen 2.5 times as fast as government spending.

How is this to be done? GDP is “projected” to rise from $US 15.1TRILLION to $US 24.6 TRILLION.

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