Niall Ferguson spoke to the Daily Telegraph about the situation in the Middle East, noting that the least likely scenario multiple Western style democracies and oil could spike higher, closer to $200 a barrel.
- 0:10 I'm a little bit of an outlier here. I don't think this is necessarily a 1989 type moment. The least likely outcome is that this results in several North African and Middle Eastern democracies. Much more likely is more military rule or an Islamist takeover.
- 1:00 These countries have far less in common with say Poland in 1989 then they do with Pakistan. Hard for such countries with young populations, high illiteracy, high food prices, to move towards political systems like the West.
- 2:05 If we continue like we do in Libya, or potential cross border wars in the region, then oil will surge higher, nearer to $200 a barrel than $100. This would be as big a kick as what happened in the 1970s.
- 3:05 This is not just about oil, the great struggle right now is over a whole range of commodities, link indium or copper. This also includes food.
Read Full Post HERE