Friday, April 1, 2011

Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (TRE) Weekly and Daily Charts

This is a stock that came to my attention through a trading/community/blog.  By all accounts it is touted as a 'must-own', NOT trade.  TRE is a gold play with Jim Sinclair at the helm.  The share price rose to fame in early 2006, peaking at just above $9/shr in May.  The share price has varied considerably since, with a low of $1.58 in October 2008, and a recent high of $7.60 in September 2010.  Below are the Weekly and Daily Charts for TRE.  These charts represent a good opportunity to examine the importance of timeline in any technical analysis.

Technically, the price is trading with in a decreasing big-ass-range ( thx to Trader1 @ SOH) - lowers highs and (almost) lower lows.  $6/shr has quite a floor.  What I find most interesting is this:  From Friday 9th, the upwards strength has been 4 out of 5 weeks up, then a correction, though the first week went 5 weeks up.  Strong however you look at it.  The corrections have also had some interesting stats - 2 -5 week and 1 - 3 week decline(s).  So strength is evident but tempered by the lack of a higher subsequent price with each effort.

Depending on how you want to read the chart, the weekly can suggest two potential paths to observe (1) the trend line above will continue to act as resistance and further downside is coming; or (2) the five weekly period decline is complete, there was hesitation today at the overhead resistance, and next trading will take the price higher for a minimum of the next three weeks.

The interesting contrast is to look at the daily chart.  Here, the decline is also evident, but there are three days of higher prices and a bump into the trend line.  What's the next days of trading to look like?  

The weekly chart gives decent arguments for either.  The Daily chart suggests there might be a greater chance of a down side.  How do you construct your trade on this setup?   As we always hear, in accordance with your tolerance and risk objectives.  My inclination would be to go short with a first target a $6/shr, at which time, if achieved, might do a trade reversal with a tight stop.  

A very well respected analyst at suggests that the closing of a gap from a little over month ago is worthy of watching for further downward pressure, and the awakening of the bears.

Which will win the battle?  Watching and Learning.

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