A head fake, a dead cat bounce? Call it what you will.

The markets have continued their seemingly nonsensical gyrations with mutli-hundred point swings in both directions. A Christmas rally thought by some. A dangerous trap thought by others. There are various signs that things might be improving, however marginal and tenuous.

Credit Crisis Indicators Calculated Risk

On the otherhand, there continues to be evidence that things can/will/might get worse.

Tobin's Q ratio compares the market value of companies to the cost of their constituent parts. This ratio has fallen to 0.7 from a peak of 2.9 in 1999, and whereas 0.3 is generally considered the end of the bear market. So are we going further down ?

Tobin's Q Ratio Says Equity Bottom Much, Much Lowe... Naked Capitalism

Q3 Level 3 assets held by large financial institutions increase by more than 15% from Q2 - real or contrived?

Quelle Surprise! Banks Increase "Mark to Make-Beli... Naked Capitalism

Considerable discussion has taken place on the status of world trade. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), shipper activity, shipping rates, storage of oil at sea in tankers, world trade is seemingly directionless.

Oil Companies Storing Oil on Tankers, Waiting for Higher Prices Naked Capitalism
Freight Haulers Prepare for "Nuclear Winter" Calculated Risk
Global trade is shrinking, fast Brad Setser

As a keen market student, I have watched in awe of the goings on in the global capital markets which have been particularly interesting since about February 2007. It has been a most fascinating learning experience. But a good friend of mine keeps telling me every time I corner him and we talk the "current status". He looks at me and says, so with this knowledge, what will you do differently today than you did yesterday? Its a question that encourages one to remain focused on what matters.