Tuesday, January 13, 2009

2009 - a work in progress

I came out of the gates rather slow this year in the workplace. The holiday season and idle but active mind stuck with me. Intensity is improving though and the real race is aboutt to begin.

In the meantime, markets are mostly flat this week, both only slightly, but TSX up 1.5% and the Dow down 1%. the debate rages on which way things will be going. Strong arguments exist for dismal earnings and therefore equities can't be expected to improve. On the other hand, by some measures valuation appear very low and therefore potential value plays.

Uncle Bernie got a new date in court. Madoff will attend the prosecutor's appeal hearing tomorrow. Word is, Madoff can't be trusted. Whoa, now really, why would that be? (Seeking Jail, US Argues Madoff Can’t Be Trusted and Madoff to Attend His Bail Appeal Hearing in New York). The NYT this morning ran a piece contemplating the potential for a plea bargain for Mr. Madoff (Signs Seen of Possible Plea Deal for Madoff). I will The Big Picture on this one (Why Might a Madoff Plea Deal Take Place?). According to TBP, that would be terrible. I agree. That would set another outrageous standard to the "(in)justice" being served in this case. Other sources have argued that any plea bargain is a long way off (Madoff plea talk premature). Brother Jaffe is apparently under doctor's care and unable to attend the hearing in Boston that he was subpoenaed for (Madoff Associate Fails to Make Massachusetts Hearing).

Collateral damage of the melting of global markets abounds. Seems like life was starting to get a little bumpy and an planned exit was in order. A 38 yr. old Indiana businessman jumps from his own plane with a parachute, picked up by police, taken to a motel, caught on security video, stashed motorcycle gone, clothes in rubbish bin nearby. Who makes this stuff up? (Parachuting investor fled divorce, investigations). Or maybe the Brit that called in his own 911 jump off a cliff into the North Sea, using his own cell phone.

I lost a sister to a drunk driver many years ago, and not a year goes by that November 17th passes unknowingly. And any, every time something like this surfaces, I find myself in a huge conflict of emotions. I am angry and sad. A 21 yr old son accompanying his mom to help his dad out of the ditch early Saturday morning, was killed by a drunk driver that plowed into the stationary vehicles pulled over on the shoulder. Senseless. Unnecessary. Dreams shattered right before their very eyes (Fatal crash 'frustrating' for MADD officials).

Ok, so by tomorrow morning two weeks has passed in the Russian-Ukraine gas dispute. Russia has claims against the Ukraine regarding pricing and theft of gas but a deal was to be have inked and signed (All parties sign Russia-Ukraine gas deal). But then news comes of an unraveling? An attempt to have an Addendum attached to the agreement brought a halt to discussions. The gas is not flowing. (Russia-Ukraine pipeline deal unravels). Dr. Geroge Friedman at Stratfor (The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power and Georgia: With NATO Shown As Paper Tiger, What Next? and The Real World Order) penned a few pieces back in August 08 essentially extrapolating the manuevers ongoing at that time into the new year, in relation to the Gerogian invasion. The playing out of these has the appearance of scenes or acts within a play. I find it troubling. It is moments like these that I feel totally vulnerable and naive about the way the world really works.

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