Wednesday, January 7, 2009

How many more of these will there be?

Business likes certainty. Vice versa, business dislikes uncertainty. Whether that is fiscal, regulatory, political or some other aspect. Uncertainty kills invesment dead. The global financial world is reeling from bad data. Real (I mean actual) bad data. Employment, earnings, commodity prices, everything is looking rather grim despite whatever rally we might be seeing for now.

Then comes the BLM revelations. Including the one this morning that suggests that Uncle Bernie accepted $250M from long time friend Carl Shapiro only days before the firm's collaspe. Its not known if this is a loan or investment. I believe the last figure I saw of losses for Mr. Shaipro are in excess of $500M including personal and insitutional monies. The depth and nature of, and the fallout from this deception is staggering and it continues.

So then what are we to make of the other "not real" scenarios that might come out of the woodwork? This morning comes a revelation out of India of Satyam, a significant enterprise with 50,000 employees and a $3.15B market cap (this morning), their Chairman has acknowledged document filings have contained false statements. Chairman B. Ramalinga Raju has said that the balance sheet as of Sept. 30 had inflated non-existing cash and bank balances, understated a liability, and overstated debtors' position. Knowingly false and knowingly mistated. Good gawd man. What were you thinking?

In light of these revelations, what are typical retail investors to do? Confidence in good corporate governance and trust in the accuracy of formal regulated corporate filings is an important component of investment making decisions. How can we make sound and reasonably reliable decisions in light of some of these revelations?

I chose to have a self directed and self managed investment strategy. That is certainly not for everyone. But how many more of these revelations will there be, and what will remain for the retail investor to assist them in making their investment decisions? The underlying uncertainty is reaching for new highs And that is never good for investment.

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