The Next 100 Years

As a new year begins many of us read annual forecasts to help us understand what the year ahead might bring. At times it is also valuable to look further ahead to identify and examine the impact of certain circumstances or events. I have a lot of time for Stratfor and their expertise is interpreting and forecasting geopolitical events and risks. I used their intelligence when I was working in Colombia for three years. George Friedman and others on the Stratfor team consistently provide insightful view of these aspects of our worlds. Mr. Friedman's recent publication entitled The Next 100 Years is an exhaustive look back and forward of current day. From Friedman's perspective, the European Age has ended and the American Age has begun. Not because it is a moral or just society or that is has become a mature civilization. Friedman has provided a concise executive summary style piece that is a worthy read (The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century). Key to Mr. Friedman's perspective is that is it a single critical event that dictates the fundamental direction of forthcoming events. Taking the unification in Germany in 1871 as that critical circumstance that was fundamental to the next 50-100 years, what is that similar event or circumstance that might provide a window to the next 100 years. Germany was lodged between Russian and France and spent the next fifty years trying to redefine the economic and political power of the world. By many measures the US remains dominant in economic and political superiority. Friedman says ever since the Civil War the US has seen a mighty economic surge. But the rise of the US was not solely a function of it military dominance. Economic dominance grew out of the changing patterns of how the world worked. Mr. Friedman argues that North America's geographical position was a significant contributing factor to gaining power. Access to and to some degree control of both Pacific and Atlantic trading routes are equally important.

It is hotly debated that China is a more likely candidate. Mr. Friedman disagrees. And for plausible reasons; geography, naval capacity, and historical political instability. As has been seen, changes that lead to the next era are always shockingly unexpected, and the first twenty years of this new century will be no exception., Mr. Friedman reminds us that just as predicting the fall of Europe in 1900 would have been resoundly contested, so would predicting who will rise in power in the late 21st century. His thoughts? Japan, Turkey and Poland. Ands again for very plausible reasons. But also not with its problems of course. "Japan, Turkey, and Poland will each be facing a United States even more confident than it was after the second fall of the Soviet Union. That will be an explosive situation."

As I mentioned in my previous post (A rebalancing act of immense proportions) the coming events may potentially spur an acceleration of technological advancement. Amongst his conclusions is a similar argument but with considerably more detail and thought. Microwave radiation of space generated power. The end of the population explosion and major shifts in population. As hard to believe as some of his predictions are, he asserts that common sense is the one thing that will certainly be wrong. One might take exceptions with his methodologies, or possibly his assumptions to develop these predictions. I have found in my own sphere of influence, it is more likely the things that I do not anticipate that have the greatest impact of what happens next than those uncertainties that I try to prepare for.

"We are now in an America-centric age. To understand this age, we must understand the United States, not only because it is so powerful but because its culture will permeate the world and define it. Just as French culture and British culture were definitive during their times of power, so American culture, as young and barbaric as it is, will define the way the world thinks and lives."

The one thing that will not change in his view is human nature. There will continue to be tragedy, and victory. We will continue to defend our allegiances, work, make money, have children, fall in love and learn to hate. These are not cyclical. These are permanent human conditions immune to the geopolitical changes occurring around us as we live out our lives. We will live on.