A great representation

As a biologist and having an affinity towards looking at life through the lens of the natural world, this cover was rather striking and apropos. The markets have continued with their march forward in the face of all the technical and fundamental arguments and debate. I have spent the last two a half years studying the markets, teaching myself, and trying to understand the mechanisms at work. It has been a challenging period for sure. I am fortunate to have recovered my losses entirely by the end of close today. So what is the view forward? Is there another mega-drop coming as some like to support, or does this rally have more legs? Are the data coming out of China an indicator of a longer term view, or a short dead cat bounce? Commodities have been given a thumb up by some. Uranium has maybe had a reversal. Oil? It all seems so much like a crap shoot. Even with all the data, analysis and intelligence on your side. Nichloas Taleb gives a fascinating presentation on the Fourth Quadrant in NYC yesterday, and furthers his story line of the black swan and the improbable probabilities (The Reality Club: THE FOURTH QUADRANT by Nassim Taleb).

I guess all those uncertainties have led me to explore trading futures and options. The volatility is certainly a friend in this world. The risk? Well that's another whole discussion. A commonly referred to figure is: 95% of all traders fail. Whoa?! So what am I doing? Learning. Exploring. Trying to understand. Low risk and high probability trades. Executed according to plan, with patience and discipline. Or at least that's my story and I'm sticking to it for now. Paper trading for the next few months is what I am told. I will continue to keep an open mind and try and learn as much as I can. So far, the training course and trading room are exciting, but also hugely complicated and difficult. The hype potential might be there, and I have caught apparent glimpses of such, but I am more convinced now that it is hard work and requires a lot of time and concentration. I'm ready. Bring it on!

For the rest of the Economists story follow the link provided below.

The world economy
A glimmer of hope?