Wednesday, July 8, 2009

This is the real sad story

For all the effort and energy that gets put towards the dynamics of the collapse, and what was right or wrong, who knew or who didn't, and where the focal point might be, the bottom line is there are so so many people of out work. There is excessive production, and inventory. Demand has virtually fallen off a cliff in a broad array of sectors. What will all these people do. Social safety nets will/are over committed and underfunded. A simple question - what will all these people do? Savings rates have catapulted up. Drying up consumer spending. Tightened credit makes less dollars available. Big Thanks to Clusterstock (source).

We've Wiped Out All The New Jobs Of The 21st Century

Headlines of greenshoots have now brought out the bears again in their effort to convince everyone that there remains significant downside left. Greenshoots? right there! Naw, there ain't none. Stock still are not cheap. Excessive supply continues. In the background we have stockpiling of natural resources and materials. China will still grow +6% or more this year. Down from double digits? yes, but still a rather robust number by any measure.

Markets have continued to have relatively light volumes. Price action has been volatile. The VIX is bouncing off some recent YTD lows. Technical gurus are calling for DOW 7500 before an autum run to 9700, and an S&P of 1070. Then a retest of the March lows in the fall. If nothing else, these markets make for a conitnued interesting education. Serious market students only need apply.

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