Fast Forward One Year - Transition: Where Are We Now?

Exactly one year ago tomorrow, I peened a piece for my profile on the JPGMAG site, as a photo essay (Transitions). We were into the depths of the decline and the world was in transition. I reference that investment banking as we know it is gone. That's debatable. GS is doing God's work now (I'm doing 'God's work'. Meet Mr Goldman Sachs), so we can all be reassured that IB will live long and prosper. Though in terms of transitions, the current financial debacles, The Fed, Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, DXY, CDN$, Gold, capitals markets, IPOs ..... and wait, Dubai and CRE? The energy is still shifting, and the pace of shift is increasing. Kinda like what the markets do when they pause at some level of support and trade sideways for a period, a period that inevitably is broken by a significant move in one direction or another. The technical folks have strong support for their notion that markets are in for another dive, the dreaded W recovery. The fundamentals still say the world economic engine is spewing out a very sour gas stench. Data coming from the emerging markets shows promise, but is their reliability in that data? George Soros laid out a fabulous discussion on Open Society and Capitalism - it is his view (and mine) that there are conflicts in the ideology and practice that need to be resolved (George Soros Lecture Series - Open Society and Mar...). The issue is one of trust. And as Hernanando DeSoto has said, the foundation of Proterty Rights has been compromised. Trust has been broken. When Bernie Madoff gets 150yrs and the Bankers Elite walk away with BILLIONS and BILLIONS - something is DRASTICALLY wrong with the energy flow. And as we know, in nature, energy flows equalize.

When this crisis started reference was made to the potential for the US to slide into a Japan style lost decade (faux)recovery. The Americans stated profoundly and unequivocally, not us. We know how this will need to be managed. We will identify the problem and fix it, and yes there will be pain, but we know what is right. Now coming on two years after those statements were made, and we're still waiting. The ONLY thing that has happened is we continue to muddle through. And people, the smart people, continue to hold promise and optimism (). Optimism is good. And optimism is Important. As I have posted before:

The great gift of no hope and shattered beliefs is the discovery of faith ~~~~~~~~~~ OriahMountainDreamer (November 2009)

I believe there also comes a time for a reality check and action. Action that will encourage a re-balance of the energy flows.