Status Update

A Calm, mindful and restful time to reflect and think about what our world has been and what it will be. Hopefully we can learn from some of our misjudgments and errors in practice. True Nobility is being superior to thy former self.

The general market mood/characteristic has not changed that much. There is a tremendous amount of internal divergence amongst the world's indices. To some that is speaking very loudly about a massive price move coming. For the moment though, there continues to be what most are saying is consolidation and sideways price action. There have however been some rather important indicator changes (Aroon 180 on the 60min S&P - the only other time this indicator crossed in the last 6 months was at the July drop) that further support price moving lower. I think the next day or two might be more telling. Though I feel like I have been saying that for too long now. What is too long? Not sure, but the general sense is that the longer the consolidation the more powerful the move, which ever direction it is. The consensus does seem to be though that the market is very fragmented and fractured across the indices (small cap and financials hurting the most and DOW/S&P still climbing - the argument being money is shifting to the bluechips). Today the markets are open but I would expect that it will be a slow day.

I read a very scary piece on CRE in California last night. I am beginning to wonder if maybe I am getting too deep into some of this. I find myself having to remind myself that even with a 15-20- 0r whatever drop/change in whatever, the remaining whatever is still there. And yet the facts are hard to ignore. CRE overall continues to be the leading item in my reading that is lying in wait. Remember AMBAC and MBIA these were the big players at the beginning of the mortgage meltdown. Too big to fail etc. Well both names have been in the new again, this time in relation to MuniBonds and the bankrupt state scenario. And yet there is also very significant verbiage given to the jobless recovery run by limitless liquidity. Low interest rates (free money) and massive dollar printing? like Marc Faber said yesterday on BNN, if the S&P goes to 900 or 800, don't think for a moment the BB and the Fed won't fire up the next installment of the printing presses. They will continue to print more and as much money as they think it needs. I'm not sure anyone really knows what this is going to look like in the end.

By many people measure the USD (which is being held as the leader of the pack - everything is following the movements of the USD at the moment) is going to continue to crash (or will experience a rally - more cross currents). The mortgage mod program in the states is getting into full gear - the real question seems to be the longevity of those mods when the expectation is the vast majority of them will also fail. This all just seems a little more like kicking the can down the street.

So what is this, an annual event in eastern Europe? December's coming its time for Russia and the Ukraine to face off again? (Russia Warns of Gas Crisis as Ukraine Faces Financial Turmoil – Bloomberg.com)