Friday, December 4, 2009

A Perspective of Correlation Destruction

I have watched in astonishment the move of gold. It just hasn't made sense to me. I hear all the standard explanations, but maybe I'm just thick or something. It still doesn't make sense to me. All the arguments presented have a worthy rebuttal. And for the time that I have spent in the market, I will be the first to say anything can happen. And I agree that I need to include a further price rise in gold as an alternative that does have a probability attached to it - but it still doesn't make sense to me. And as with everything everywhere, there is always another perspective. And this morning ZeroHedge gives me one that fits my thinking. To me, this makes sense.

"Gold has been a reactionary trade against fiat currencies and a hedge for asian central banks against their USD holdings. The trade is basically a carry trade, and has been fueled with a lot emotion with targets of 5,000 being mentioned for the most enthussiastic analysts. However, it is all conditional on a sharp pick up in inflatoin that has yet to manifest itself, and with 10% unemployment and quite a bit of capacity slack it is doubtful that this scenario is imminent."

What about in the longer term. Can gold continue to the stratospheric levels that are referenced with such confidence? Timing. Everything in the markets is timing. And for me, for now, I'm sitting, watching and learning.

No comments: