Many Thanks to ZeroHedge.
And even though everyone "knows" the state of commercial real estate is in free fall, few have been able to pin it down to specific buildings, as property-level data is still very expensive and more often than not, proprietary. In order to bring the full degree of CRE collapse closer to home, and to provide some leads to our MSM-originating readers, we present a detailed analysis of some of the most impacted CRE properties that have yet to make headline news. For that purpose we combed through BarCap's CMBS remittance data for CMBX 4 (2007 vintage), which is broadly considered the peak year for commercial real estate deals and also the very peak of the housing bubble. We expected to find some of the juiciest CRE failures to be in this loan set. We were not disappointed.
Notable in the commentary are numerous tidbits about prevailing rents as well as less than public negotiations between various stakeholders which disclose just how impacted CRE across the country really is.
The piece goes on to list in excellent detail the status of 15 properties and their most recent DSCR (described by the article as): DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio - comparable to a Free Cash Flow to Interest ratio: anything below 1.0x means the property does not cover it debt service and is a flashing sign of an impending default).
These values ranged from 0.42 to 1.43 and an average of 0.83. Believe it or not this includes such iconic buildings as Times Square and One Park Avenue. Not a pretty picture. As one comments poster said, a preview of the tsunami coming. I can't wait for Part II.
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