Alexandre Pestov
Schulich School of Business
February 2010
The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble
ABSTRACT
The cause of the housing bubble associated with the sharp run-up and the subsequent drop in home prices in the US over the period of 1999-2008 has been the focus of significant research attention. Despite numerous similarities, the Canadian housing market escapes the same level of interest, mostly due to the seemingly stable housing prices.
This paper explores the subject of a possible housing bubble in Canada. It examines a diverse array of factors that may have contributed to the rise in house prices in Canada. The paper evaluates each factor individually and determines the health of the Canadian housing market using common valuation techniques.
Results suggest that economic fundamentals in Canada provide little explanation for the Canadian house price dynamics. Market fundamentals have become insignificant in affecting house prices, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a bubble now exist. The extreme decoupling of the market prices from the underlying fundamentals suggests an upcoming correction in housing prices in Canada.
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2 comments:
Agreed, it is not ideal to buy near a top nor sell near a bottom. But what about those that bought a few years ago?
Sell and rent? Interesting view:
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2010/03/20/canadian-housing/
thank you for your visit and your thoughts. From 2005 - I was in the difficult position of having to decide about buying a house (divorce) and for a number of reasons did not. And as things have been unwinding, I have made the choice to continue to rent. The decision for me is not solely based on the price of the houses but includes a sense of what the market is doing. And in my view there remains an enormous unresolved issue of the debt-credit-value relationship. And reconciling this is a matter of timing. For those that currently own - depends on individual circumstances - I believe I would be sitting tight and making every effort I could to trim my debt load and interest expenses.
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