Wednesday, April 7, 2010

What to Look Out For Tomorrow (Breakpointtrades.com)

The technical folks are suggesting that a correction in this recent run up is coming again.  Though this time the clarification is that this will just be a correction before continuing higher.  The SPX lost some today but the momentum is up.  Breaking key levels as indicated on the first chart, will be telltale for a possibly deeper contraction.  

Gold certain ran uphill handsomely today.  I think the markets really all seem to be running on hot air, or maybe that's steroid tainted air, or maybe like the April Fools joke from Coca-Cola, N2O air.  Or maybe I'm missing the boat and not fully understanding the recovery.  Whatever blend we are referring to, the markets direction remains up.  For whatever time it does until it doesn't anymore.  Sounds simple.  But that's pretty much it.  In my view there is a preponderance of grounds for the failure of this continued escalation of equity values - and other values more broadly.  I also though acknowledge others that support the recovery.  And the $VIX continues to slip lower though comparatively there have been lower periods.  And some spikes.  But the eye-balled middle of the road from the data I show is approximately 25 +/-.  We remain at ~16 - the low of 8.60 was recorded on December 31, 2006.  With the spike we have had to 90+ the possibility is there that the markets will remain complacent until something jolts them awake.  At the moment I believe there is a number of choices that one might consider.  In my view Sovereign debt is the number one choice.  And Greece's bonds continued their march towards mission critical at 450bp - registering over 410bp through today's trading.  The story remains in flux and our best choice might be to just watch and learn.



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