Carl Futia's longer term outlook for the S&P500 (Carl Futia)

MONDAY, JUNE 14, 2010

A longer term picture

Here is a 10 point box, 3 box reversal chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to May of 2008. It presents a longer term picture of where the market stands and of its possible future movements.

I have drawn a series of 180 point boxes which I think have been controlling the market's movements for the past 20 months. The May low occurred at the bottom of the third box and the April high at its top.

I think the April-May drop was this bull market's midpoint correction. I think that the next upswing will last well into 2011 and carry the market at least to the top of its fourth box and more probably to the top of its fifth box before this bull market is complete. Note that the first leg up from March 2009 at 666 to April 2010 at 1216 carried the S&P up 550 points. Duplicating this move starting from the May low would imply an eventual high near 1590, the 2007 top. A shorter upswing that carries the market up a fibonacci .618 of the initial 550 point swing would carry to 1380, close to the top of the fourth box.