This may be the most dangerous moment on the Korean Peninsula since the truce ending the Korean War in 1953. North Korea’s artillery attack on a densely populated South Korean island, harming civilians, represents a whole new level of escalation. Notably, the South Koreans fired back—which sent a good strong message. The Pyongyang crazies never attacked civilians this way before. But they torpedoed aSouth Korean naval vessel in March, killing 46 sailors, and they hadn’t done anything that provocative before either. Not to be forgotten, they just took American scientists to view their new uranium enrichment facility, which could add to North Korea’s stockpile of eight to 12 nuclear weapons. Is war looming on the peninsula once again? Why has Pyongyang taken these alarming military actions? What can South Korea and the United States do now?
This picture taken on November 23, 2010 by a South Korean tourist shows huge plumes of smoke rising from Yeonpyeong island in the disputed waters of the Yellow Sea on November 23, 2010 (Getty Images). From top: South Korean President Lee Myung-bak & NorthThe short answers are:First, North and South Korea have never been closer to war since 1953, but close is actually not too close because of the terrible consequences of war for both sides.
Second, Pyongyang wouldn’t be sticking its finger so brazenly in South Korean and American eyes if the regime didn’t want something. And this something, interestingly, might be its desire for new negotiations—or it might be something to do with Pyongyang’s Byzantine succession dance now under way.
Third, Seoul and Washington don’t have very good options, as usual, but they can’t just do nothing. In the face of these two North Korean attacks, alliance credibility is flatly on the line.
North Koreans have done crazy and dangerous things before, but never so blatantly as now. On the other side, the new South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, has stated many times that he wouldn’t put up with such provocations and was going to be tougher than his predecessors. On top of this, relations between China and North Korea have been “warming,” says Evans Revere, one of America’s leading experts on the region. This warming certainly emboldens Pyongyang further. And the Obama administration has recently dispatched the U.S. Navy to Asian waters to send Beijing a message about its muscle-flexing. This all adds up to a combustible situation.
War would destroy both sides, and neither side can afford war. Thus, war is closer than in decades, but not really on the horizon.
But the underlying reality on the peninsula is that war makes no sense. Both sides know it beyond dispute. Here’s what happens if war breaks out: half of South Korea’s population is within 50 miles of North Korea’s arsenal of almost 12,000 artillery guns and rockets. Those weapons are more than sufficient to destroy much of what South Korea has created in over half a century. As for North Korea, a U.S. air and missile attack would destroy what’s left of that country and leave its dictatorship in want of a home. Thus, war would destroy both sides, and neither side can afford war. Thus, war is closer than in decades, but not really on the horizon. American political leaders wanting to look tough will undoubtedly propose some unspecified U.S. military actions, but fortunately, they won't get their way. Any game of chicken will have to be up to our South Korean allies.
Beyond question, Pyongyang knows all this. So when they ratchet up the danger level, they’re doing it for some other reason. Explanation No. 1 is that the shooting is part of Pyongyang’s succession problems. The Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il is in poor health and fading. It appears that he has jumped over his second son and intends to empower his third son instead. This third son, Kim Jong-Un, has some exalted military title and he may be ordering the high-wire military actions to show how tough he is. But there may be an additional explanation. Asia experts think that Pyongyang is taking these actions as the only way it knows of getting our full attention. And what they think Pyongyang wants is to resume the usual negotiations—our concerns regarding their nuclear program and their desires to have more economic assistance. In fact, that has been the message the North Koreans have provided quietly during several recent visits by private American groups.
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