Sunday, February 20, 2011

Libya Oil Production to Europe, and the rest of the Globe

Listening to the events in the middle east, some discussion has turned to the economic aspects.  Libya produces something less than 2M bbl/d, and the vast majority of that is marketed through the country's OilInvest marketing network.  Italy, Germany, Spain, France, (collectively 65% of all exports) and the US (5%) are significant importers of Libyan oil according to this 2009 data.  2006 data were similar from - though China's take has doubled to 10% and Canada is not mentioned.  In 2006 Canada is included in the 'other' category of 10%. These are significant proportions of Libta's production, with consumption less than 300,000 bbl/d.  Some discussion has been reported on in terms of the economic impact of a disruption to Libya's oil exports.  The general Middle East unrest has given a boost to oil futures (source and source and source and source), Brent crude is quoted at spiking to $104 from a close on Friday at $102.  WTI flirted with $78 on Friday, up to ~$87.80, and has settled at ~$86 in AH (source).  So what does the recently passed budget in Iraq say when they settle on a 2011 oil price of ~$76 (source)?  The longer term view says that there is caution to be heeded (source).  This perspective is of the CRB Index that is approaching previous resistance of the technical view.  This chart view takes a look back into the early sixties.

The Monthly view of WTI-NYMEX shows a similar pattern.

However, demand and consumption do respond to higher relative prices.  The real influence of unrest in the major oil producing countries of the Middle East would create some changes in the dynamics of the oil producing and consuming states of the globe, which account for 35% of global production (source).  Watching and Learning.
EIA Libya Oil Data (2009)
Libya's oil exports by destination 2009
                                                                                                    Oil Data (2006)

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