Thursday, June 30, 2011

Euro Fully Valued? What Does That Really Mean? (Black Swan Capital)

The euro is fully valued.

What does that even mean? I don't know, but I heard a Reuters analyst say that yesterday. He said the euro is fully valued between $1.45 and $1.48.

But is the euro fairly valued when fully valued? Or, in other words, does the euro deserve to be fully valued.

It doesn't appear so.What's been going on in the eurozone, particularly with the charades surrounding the Greek bailout and austerity agreement, amounts to not much more than a big game ... at least for the eurozone officials and the ruling elite. (Though I'm sure the commoners rioting in the streets of Athens are having a blast as well.)

David Newman passed on a photo yesterday that sums up how I and others view the measures being taken to shore up Greek debt and ease periphery-wide concerns. Below is a photo with the same concept; but I think this one better reflects the history of this age-old political art form:



It seems to me this game is bound to end soon; and it is likely to end very badly. It doesn't seem like any heretofore proposed solutions will be sufficient to keep the eurozone intact.

UPDATE: This will allow them to buy time.
It was somewhat refreshing to hear an analyst admit today that the recent austerity-cum-bailout agreement in Greece will allow officials to buy more time on their way to developing a credible solution. It was just another way of saying 'kick the can down the road' ... as far as I'm concerned.

This "deal" will certainly aid and abet the risk appetite in financial markets in the near-term. But will it prevent a major slide in the future? Will it buy enough time for the thinking to change and actually foster a credible solution idea? I don't think so.

I imagine the confidence in these "solutions" must be wearing thin with the public and with investors. So as the investment world splits hairs over Eurozone banks' solvency and the ability for Greece to sufficiently pay back its creditors, I wait. I wait to strike.To read more about what I and others feel about this perpetual game of kicking the can down the eurozone road, just click here.

Thanks,

Jack


READ ORIGINAL POST HERE







No comments: