Saturday, January 7, 2012 Financial and Global Markets Insight for 2012

I have been a listener of the program hosted by Michael Campbell for several years now.  There is a steady stream of high quality information and valuable discussion on the direction of markets, their technical performance and fundamental underpinnings.  Today's show, the first of 2012, was intended to provide a prescient view forward.  And to provide some of that insight one of today's guests was David Bensimon of Polar Pacific Capital patching in from Cambodia.

I had the opportunity to meet Michael and several other of his regular guests in October 2008.  It was during that trip that the most profound lesson in trading came to me.  If you don't understand the trade, don't take it.  Period.  In hindsight it is not a bad credo.  Kind of like sticking with the what you know best perspective.  Below I provide my takeaways and talking points from Michael's introduction, and from David Bensimon's discussion.

Michael's Introduction
  • Circumstances that led to the decline in 2007-08 have remained unchanged or worse.
  • Significant issues remain with demographics and pensions certainly in the top 5.
  • Another year has passed with no meaningful action.
  • There will be plenty of peril in 2012.
  • European sovereign debt probably tops the list of issues.
  • An unexpected geopolitical event could have significant implications.
David Bensimon's Discussion
  • 2012Q1 will see a 20% fall in equities and commodities
  • This will be followed by a major boom in real growth and prosperity, primarily a function of monetary inflation.
  • USD (DXY0) will have a three month holiday of improved value.
  • The S&P will see 1018 (Apr)  and then a 70+% rise into 2014.
  • Gold will see $1300/oz while Silver will see $21.50/oz (Apr).
  • Copper will see $290 (Feb) and $21 (Apr).
  • Oil will see $75/bbl (Feb) and $55-65/bbl(Apr).
  • Each of the scenarios noted should present superb buying opportunities.
  • There are many 'technical' juncture arriving simultaneously in mid to late April.
  • There are upper resistance targets that cannot be breached in order for these scenarios to be valid.
Volatility will be continuing or so is my expectation.  Take only the best setups.  Know your risk and reward.  Be nimble and quick.  Trading on.  Watching and Learning.


Anonymous said...

Tahoe, don't be too enamoured with David Bensimon. His record is terrible as I went back to a Moneytalks show I recorded on August 16/08 and listened again to what he had to say. He was way off the mark for the stock markets and US currency. He was right for gold and silver. Hard to tell for oil since he didn't give a downside projection.

That's the trouble with analysts. No one holds them accountable for their predictions.

Tahoe said...

thanks for the comment and your interesting/informative feedback. Looking in the rearview mirror to groundtruth is important for sure. I'm not much of a marco trader so my interest is just in sharing different perspectives and trying to make some sense of the current circumstances globally. I'm more of a trade the chart guy for now. Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

Bensimon has had some good prediction from the March 9 2009 low but his time and price has been off. Example silver was to be $160 in 2012, Copper $8-10 by end of 2012 etc.

His prediction of a crash into the first Q is wrong as we are now on Feb 15, 2012 with the S & P 500 at 1350-1342 area. The likely scenario is Oil will get to $150, S&P 500 to 1500 area, heating oil to $4.00+, Nat Gas also take off to $8-9+, USD down to 58-62 area all by April/May then reverse in June/July/Aug then reverse with US dollar low at 51 or 41 ( DX futures ). CAD should then be 1.39 or 1.49/1.51 or 1.59.

S&P 500 to 1600-1765 with outlier at 2200 this year and by 2016 3,600-3,400. Silver to $80-100 this year....