I have been a listener of the MoneyTalks.net program hosted by Michael Campbell for several years now. There is a steady stream of high quality information and valuable discussion on the direction of markets, their technical performance and fundamental underpinnings. Today's show, the first of 2012, was intended to provide a prescient view forward. And to provide some of that insight one of today's guests was David Bensimon of Polar Pacific Capital patching in from Cambodia.
I had the opportunity to meet Michael and several other of his regular guests in October 2008. It was during that trip that the most profound lesson in trading came to me. If you don't understand the trade, don't take it. Period. In hindsight it is not a bad credo. Kind of like sticking with the what you know best perspective. Below I provide my takeaways and talking points from Michael's introduction, and from David Bensimon's discussion.
- Circumstances that led to the decline in 2007-08 have remained unchanged or worse.
- Significant issues remain with demographics and pensions certainly in the top 5.
- Another year has passed with no meaningful action.
- There will be plenty of peril in 2012.
- European sovereign debt probably tops the list of issues.
- An unexpected geopolitical event could have significant implications.
- 2012Q1 will see a 20% fall in equities and commodities
- This will be followed by a major boom in real growth and prosperity, primarily a function of monetary inflation.
- USD (DXY0) will have a three month holiday of improved value.
- The S&P will see 1018 (Apr) and then a 70+% rise into 2014.
- Gold will see $1300/oz while Silver will see $21.50/oz (Apr).
- Copper will see $290 (Feb) and $21 (Apr).
- Oil will see $75/bbl (Feb) and $55-65/bbl(Apr).
- Each of the scenarios noted should present superb buying opportunities.
- There are many 'technical' juncture arriving simultaneously in mid to late April.
- There are upper resistance targets that cannot be breached in order for these scenarios to be valid.