Thursday, April 19, 2012

Black Swan Capital: Oil Speculators and their misbehavin'

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Those wretched crude oil speculators.

Granted, there are speculative premiums embedded in prices; that is a fact and will not change as long as you have actively traded markets. Sometimes these premiums will be out of line, and those betting the wrong way will be punished by Mr. Market. But over time the real supply/demand dynamics will rule the day.  Not speculation. Though I am not a big believer in so-called equilibrium, I do believe prices will trend toward some supply and demand equilibrium over the longer term. It's true for oil, wheat, corn and every actively traded commodity. It has always been that way. 

This doesn't mean markets or market mechanisms are perfect.  They are not.  And it doesn't mean market efficiency can't be improved. It doesn't mean politically-protected con-artists -- read Jon Corzine -- should not be thrown in jail forever. 


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