Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Ray Dalio: The Phat Tail Outcome (ZeroHedge)
I have a lot of time for Mr. Dalio. He has a rather unique perspective and has had some significant success with his Bridgewater funds. Here he is floating the idea the the Phat Tail is a significant possibility - the Phat Tail being - that outlier event - that event beyond the scope of typical planning horizons - the event that has exceptionally low probability - but when they occur - they have possibly catastrophic consequences. Black Swan. 2008 is considered such an event. the decline in the markets represented a 21 point standard deviation from the norm. There are those that believe the upcoming 'correction' or 'liquidation' or 'deflation' - will dwarf 2008. Watching and learning. Trading on.