FACT SHEETS: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012

The following are a couple of excerpts from the Fact Sheets: IEA World Energy Outlook.  A changing landscape in the energy world will see important changes in global trade.  FULL Original Document HERE

An energy renaissance in the United States is redrawing the global energy map, with
implications for energy markets and trade. The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self‐sufficient in net terms by 2035 thanks to rising production of oil, shale gas and bioenergy, and improved fuel efficiency in transport.  Falling US oil imports mean that North America becomes a net oil exporter by around 2030. This accelerates the ongoing shift in the international oil trade towards Asian markets, putting greater focus on the security of strategic routes that link them to the Middle East.

Trucks deliver a large share of oil demand growth. The transport sector already accounts for well over half of global oil consumption, and this share increases as the number of passenger cars doubles to 1.7 billion and demand for road freight rises quickly. The latter is responsible for almost 40% of the increase in global oil demand: oil use for trucks – predominantly diesel – increases much faster than that for passenger vehicles, in part because fuel‐economy standards for trucks are much less widely adopted.

Natural gas is the only fossil fuel for which global demand grows in all three scenarios. In the New Policies Scenario, world demand increases to almost 5 tcm in 2035 compared to 3.4 tcm today. This is a result of rapid growth in developing countries, led by China, but some growth also in the OECD – due in part to abundant supply in North America. Gas resources are ample to meet this demand and estimates of their magnitude are growing.

Water is growing in importance as a criterion for assessing the physical, economic and
environmental viability of energy projects. Among other examples, water use could become increasingly challenging for unconventional gas development and power generation in parts of China and the United States, India’s fleet of water‐intensive coal‐fired plants, Canadian oil sands production and maintaining reservoir pressures to support oil output in Iraq. 

Despite progress, nearly 1.3 billion people remain without access to electricity and 2.6 billion do not have access to clean cooking facilities. Ten countries – four in Asia and six in Africa – account for two‐thirds of those people without electricity and just three countries – India, China and Bangladesh – account for more than half of those without clean cooking facilities.